۩ ╠ geopolitical repercussions of the financial crisis ╣ ۩
D. Khalil HassanDespite uncertainties in the international system in the next phase, the financial crisis will speed up the transformation of the international system to a multipolar system, that's the crisis to deepen the economic role of China and other world, through her own huge reserves, which gives it powerful and clear with regard to the formation of the future of the global economic landscape.
With intensification of the financial crisis that a major question arises: Is the economic crisis will accelerate the collapse of the United States economically, more quickly than expected? Or that the financial crisis will be an opportunity for the U.S. to return more powerful than it was during the past years?
Historical precedent suggests the success of the United States in dealing with crises, especially the economic and faced during its history, compared to that of other powers. For example, the United States out of the oil crisis during the seventies of the last century, quickly, compared to that of the European powers and Japan, which was more dependent on oil. It also has elements of the United States out of its crises, and has the ability to reinvent itself. It may not be a crisis obstacle to the United States, but may be the cause of her return more powerful, according to the saying "creative destruction," which characterized the United States in the past, and could help it emerge from its current crisis, but at the same time the U.S. will of the decline in its image internationally, because of its Middle East and the war on terrorism, as well as the source of this crisis, as well as lack of trust between the United States and emerging economies, which shows clearly in the US-China relations, which are described as "unhappy marriage".
Indicates the size of financial incentives last that the United States depends, in fact, the privileges may not be present in many cases, they adopt foreign policies and its military on those privileges, for example, depreciation of the dollar would be difficult to achieve a balance between the ambition of the United States to achieve the objectives its foreign policy, and the high financial costs to achieve these goals. It is expected that the resulting financial crisis plaguing the global economy were key:
The economic issues will occupy the priorities of high-level policy of the States, where the Historical precedent suggests that changes in the economic environment and the global financial require a shift in the thinking of foreign policy, it is very difficult to find a dividing line between the economy and foreign policy, that is, economic and financial issues have become high-level policy of the States and become difficult to find lines and fake between the economy and foreign policy. For example, called for Brazil, days after the summit, the twentieth in Washington and agreed to refrain from imposing new barriers on new investments or trade, to raise common tariff on a range of goods, and tightened China's peg to the dollar, and announced a new phase of tax cuts on exports, while Russia has increased tariffs on imports.
Increase in conflicts worldwide, with the increasing number of international forces and the increasing overlap and overlap in their relationships and increased opportunities for exchanges between them, there are unintended consequences with a feeling of insecurity, with increasing conflicts in the economic environment is stable, and what happened to Central Europe in the twenties and thirties of last century, as well as what happened to the League United not so long ago to occur in the twenty-century atheist.
In addition, will the economic crisis to the decline of the U.S. presence of military in the Middle East, with the pursuit of the region to possess nuclear technology, which may lead to new security arrangements in the region, which will increase the instability, which pays a lot of states to adopt proactive policies depends offensive, not defensive, and it is possible from conflicts over economic resources, especially energy and water in areas of scarcity of water, which is linked to the regime's legitimacy and political stability in many countries the availability of those resources, and may be conflicts with local character, or between international powers. The future will not differ much from the past in many respects, as the international system will move towards more distribution of power and authority, winning two decades ago, based on the emergence of international actors of new and aggravate the deficit, corporate governance and increasing the growth of regional blocs, and increase the strength of non-state actors . will not result in the multiplicity of actors on the international stage to promote the stability of the international system by filling the vacuum left by the institutions and the forces of World War II, but may lead to increasing fragmentation and paralysis of international cooperation.
Due to the growing economic power and geopolitical forces rising, they will enjoy a degree of freedom with regard to the amendment of its foreign policy and economic without relying entirely on Western standards, as well as their enjoyment of freedom of maneuver and to allow other forces to bear the main burden of dealing with many international issues such as dealing with terrorism, climate change and the spread of nuclear weapons and energy security.
It also is not expected to be capable of existing international organizations to deal with new tasks for this new system, as characterized by rigid movement and inability to cope with changes in membership and increased resources. On the other hand will increase the role of NGOs, but it is unlikely to be able to make a difference in the absence of efforts and coordination with multilateral organizations and governments, as well as it would be difficult to deal with transnational challenges in light of differing views and the difficulty of reaching agreement on solutions to problems.
As will the financial crisis and the ongoing recession toward the fragmentation of the international regime, with the growing risk of conflict, emerging Powers (Brazil, Russia, India and China) seem ready to challenge the international system, as did Germany and Japan in the nineteenth century.
There is a correlation and positive relationship between the world of finance and economy on the one hand and the nature of the international system through the various eras of international policies, as noted above may reflect the current financial crisis, the global system-based to the West again when a different form and similar content, but the movement of history and the changing tools of conflict and the means and objectives will be days frameworks new and different in form and substance.
D. Khalil HassanDespite uncertainties in the international system in the next phase, the financial crisis will speed up the transformation of the international system to a multipolar system, that's the crisis to deepen the economic role of China and other world, through her own huge reserves, which gives it powerful and clear with regard to the formation of the future of the global economic landscape.
With intensification of the financial crisis that a major question arises: Is the economic crisis will accelerate the collapse of the United States economically, more quickly than expected? Or that the financial crisis will be an opportunity for the U.S. to return more powerful than it was during the past years?
Historical precedent suggests the success of the United States in dealing with crises, especially the economic and faced during its history, compared to that of other powers. For example, the United States out of the oil crisis during the seventies of the last century, quickly, compared to that of the European powers and Japan, which was more dependent on oil. It also has elements of the United States out of its crises, and has the ability to reinvent itself. It may not be a crisis obstacle to the United States, but may be the cause of her return more powerful, according to the saying "creative destruction," which characterized the United States in the past, and could help it emerge from its current crisis, but at the same time the U.S. will of the decline in its image internationally, because of its Middle East and the war on terrorism, as well as the source of this crisis, as well as lack of trust between the United States and emerging economies, which shows clearly in the US-China relations, which are described as "unhappy marriage".
Indicates the size of financial incentives last that the United States depends, in fact, the privileges may not be present in many cases, they adopt foreign policies and its military on those privileges, for example, depreciation of the dollar would be difficult to achieve a balance between the ambition of the United States to achieve the objectives its foreign policy, and the high financial costs to achieve these goals. It is expected that the resulting financial crisis plaguing the global economy were key:
The economic issues will occupy the priorities of high-level policy of the States, where the Historical precedent suggests that changes in the economic environment and the global financial require a shift in the thinking of foreign policy, it is very difficult to find a dividing line between the economy and foreign policy, that is, economic and financial issues have become high-level policy of the States and become difficult to find lines and fake between the economy and foreign policy. For example, called for Brazil, days after the summit, the twentieth in Washington and agreed to refrain from imposing new barriers on new investments or trade, to raise common tariff on a range of goods, and tightened China's peg to the dollar, and announced a new phase of tax cuts on exports, while Russia has increased tariffs on imports.
Increase in conflicts worldwide, with the increasing number of international forces and the increasing overlap and overlap in their relationships and increased opportunities for exchanges between them, there are unintended consequences with a feeling of insecurity, with increasing conflicts in the economic environment is stable, and what happened to Central Europe in the twenties and thirties of last century, as well as what happened to the League United not so long ago to occur in the twenty-century atheist.
In addition, will the economic crisis to the decline of the U.S. presence of military in the Middle East, with the pursuit of the region to possess nuclear technology, which may lead to new security arrangements in the region, which will increase the instability, which pays a lot of states to adopt proactive policies depends offensive, not defensive, and it is possible from conflicts over economic resources, especially energy and water in areas of scarcity of water, which is linked to the regime's legitimacy and political stability in many countries the availability of those resources, and may be conflicts with local character, or between international powers. The future will not differ much from the past in many respects, as the international system will move towards more distribution of power and authority, winning two decades ago, based on the emergence of international actors of new and aggravate the deficit, corporate governance and increasing the growth of regional blocs, and increase the strength of non-state actors . will not result in the multiplicity of actors on the international stage to promote the stability of the international system by filling the vacuum left by the institutions and the forces of World War II, but may lead to increasing fragmentation and paralysis of international cooperation.
Due to the growing economic power and geopolitical forces rising, they will enjoy a degree of freedom with regard to the amendment of its foreign policy and economic without relying entirely on Western standards, as well as their enjoyment of freedom of maneuver and to allow other forces to bear the main burden of dealing with many international issues such as dealing with terrorism, climate change and the spread of nuclear weapons and energy security.
It also is not expected to be capable of existing international organizations to deal with new tasks for this new system, as characterized by rigid movement and inability to cope with changes in membership and increased resources. On the other hand will increase the role of NGOs, but it is unlikely to be able to make a difference in the absence of efforts and coordination with multilateral organizations and governments, as well as it would be difficult to deal with transnational challenges in light of differing views and the difficulty of reaching agreement on solutions to problems.
As will the financial crisis and the ongoing recession toward the fragmentation of the international regime, with the growing risk of conflict, emerging Powers (Brazil, Russia, India and China) seem ready to challenge the international system, as did Germany and Japan in the nineteenth century.
There is a correlation and positive relationship between the world of finance and economy on the one hand and the nature of the international system through the various eras of international policies, as noted above may reflect the current financial crisis, the global system-based to the West again when a different form and similar content, but the movement of history and the changing tools of conflict and the means and objectives will be days frameworks new and different in form and substance.
* Professor of International Relations at the Lebanese University.
