Studied the history of oil .. Demand will not grow forever!
D. Anas ibn Faisal Al-Hajji
At the mention of''peak oil''in the field, some believe that the modern idea of 'peak oil production,''which has been endemic in recent years, but in fact the idea of a less common' peak demand '. Although there is considerable dispute over the 'peak' oil production, but that there is agreement among experts in the form of a curve of energy consumption in the country, and thus oil consumption curve. The shape of this curve is the crux of the matter to prove the idea that what threatens the future of oil is not the reserve dry up, but not the growth of global demand enough to ensure economic and political stability in oil-producing countries.
Curve of energy consumption and oil
If we look at the curve of energy consumption for a country or region over a long period of time, we find that energy consumption is increasing rapidly in the beginning, a period of evolution and economic development. The growth continues in the period of industrialization and rising incomes, but this growth starts to shrink in the''luxury''even fading, then it becomes growth is negative and starts consumption decline for two reasons: first, increase efficiency, which enables the production of additional units of gross domestic card less , and the other transmission-intensive heavy industries and energy to other countries. If we look at the data of European countries and the United States, we find that the energy consumption in these countries follows this curve, and that this consumption in the stage of decline. For example, the energy consumption in the United States is on the rise, and then slowed down growth, then growth is zero (the curve became a straight line) since 2000, then dropped since 2007.
If we look at the curve of oil consumption, we find that, similar to the curve of energy consumption, but noted that the decline in oil consumption at low consumption of energy greater than the decline in the consumption of energy, because there are alternatives to oil, while there is no energy alternatives as a whole. If we look at the European and U.S. data we find that they support this conclusion, where oil consumption has fallen in recent years, more than low power consumption.
China and emerging countries
There is agreement among experts that emerging countries will follow the curve of energy consumption, which was followed by Europe and the United States during the last 200 years with some subtle differences. If we compare the energy consumption in emerging countries is the consumption of industrialized countries during the past decades, we find that China is now in place of the United States since 100 years ago. If we tried to anticipate the future of energy consumption in China based on what happened in the United States or Europe, it is clear that energy consumption in China will grow to several times what it is now.
Since the curve of oil consumption is close to a curve of energy consumption, it can easily conclude that China's oil consumption will double several times over the coming decades. And some can be concluded easily that even if reduced oil demand in both Europe and the United States, the demand for oil in China and emerging countries would be so great that the global demand for oil will continue to grow, so do not fear high oil prices. But this conclusion is false for several reasons, including:
1 - China and emerging countries benefit from technological advances that can increase energy efficiency on the one hand, and the use of new and renewable energy on the other. This means that the curve of energy consumption in emerging countries will be lower than the historical curve of energy consumption in industrialized countries, and the curve of oil consumption is lower than the curve of oil consumption in industrial countries historically.
2 - Because of technological progress mentioned above, due to the one-child policy in China and the low number of births of higher incomes in emerging countries, the mathematical models show that these countries will reach a peak before the peak power consumption by the industrial countries and their relevance to many years. For example, if you took the arrival of the industrial countries to a peak power consumption 150 years, the emerging countries may reach that peak within 60 years.
3 - If we look at the curves that compare the energy consumption of China and India in industrialized countries, we find that the consumption of two individuals actually Indian and the Chinese equivalent to what was consumed by the average American almost 100 years ago. And who expect similar growth to the U.S. per capita consumption in China and India in the coming decades are ignoring the fact can not be condoned at all is that this kind of comparisons focused on the European and U.S. data in periods of political stability. In other words, so that comparison and the conclusion is true, there is presumably a key is that China and India Stneman political stability during the next 100 years, which is not a thought. I'd be more optimistic about the future of oil if to ensure that China will not suffer political unrest in the coming decades.
4 - Energy demand in China and emerging countries fall into two categories, self-section stems from the growth of the local economy, and the department resulted from the transfer of factories and companies from Europe, America and Japan to China to these countries. These industries will move back to the new countries when they arrived in emerging countries to a certain level of development. This means that the growth of energy demand in India and China will not continue at current rates.
5 - If we compare the long-term outlook for global oil demand made during the past 50 years real-time data, we find that actual demand was always much lower than expected. When the word''many''the really big difference by any measure, more than 20 million barrels a day!
In short, these developments, which limit the growth of global oil demand over the long term fact of life, although high oil prices accelerate these developments, so the future is not in fear of 'peak oil production,''but of''peak oil demand '.. Will absorb oil countries this history lesson?
D. Anas ibn Faisal Al-Hajji
At the mention of''peak oil''in the field, some believe that the modern idea of 'peak oil production,''which has been endemic in recent years, but in fact the idea of a less common' peak demand '. Although there is considerable dispute over the 'peak' oil production, but that there is agreement among experts in the form of a curve of energy consumption in the country, and thus oil consumption curve. The shape of this curve is the crux of the matter to prove the idea that what threatens the future of oil is not the reserve dry up, but not the growth of global demand enough to ensure economic and political stability in oil-producing countries.
Curve of energy consumption and oil
If we look at the curve of energy consumption for a country or region over a long period of time, we find that energy consumption is increasing rapidly in the beginning, a period of evolution and economic development. The growth continues in the period of industrialization and rising incomes, but this growth starts to shrink in the''luxury''even fading, then it becomes growth is negative and starts consumption decline for two reasons: first, increase efficiency, which enables the production of additional units of gross domestic card less , and the other transmission-intensive heavy industries and energy to other countries. If we look at the data of European countries and the United States, we find that the energy consumption in these countries follows this curve, and that this consumption in the stage of decline. For example, the energy consumption in the United States is on the rise, and then slowed down growth, then growth is zero (the curve became a straight line) since 2000, then dropped since 2007.
If we look at the curve of oil consumption, we find that, similar to the curve of energy consumption, but noted that the decline in oil consumption at low consumption of energy greater than the decline in the consumption of energy, because there are alternatives to oil, while there is no energy alternatives as a whole. If we look at the European and U.S. data we find that they support this conclusion, where oil consumption has fallen in recent years, more than low power consumption.
China and emerging countries
There is agreement among experts that emerging countries will follow the curve of energy consumption, which was followed by Europe and the United States during the last 200 years with some subtle differences. If we compare the energy consumption in emerging countries is the consumption of industrialized countries during the past decades, we find that China is now in place of the United States since 100 years ago. If we tried to anticipate the future of energy consumption in China based on what happened in the United States or Europe, it is clear that energy consumption in China will grow to several times what it is now.
Since the curve of oil consumption is close to a curve of energy consumption, it can easily conclude that China's oil consumption will double several times over the coming decades. And some can be concluded easily that even if reduced oil demand in both Europe and the United States, the demand for oil in China and emerging countries would be so great that the global demand for oil will continue to grow, so do not fear high oil prices. But this conclusion is false for several reasons, including:
1 - China and emerging countries benefit from technological advances that can increase energy efficiency on the one hand, and the use of new and renewable energy on the other. This means that the curve of energy consumption in emerging countries will be lower than the historical curve of energy consumption in industrialized countries, and the curve of oil consumption is lower than the curve of oil consumption in industrial countries historically.
2 - Because of technological progress mentioned above, due to the one-child policy in China and the low number of births of higher incomes in emerging countries, the mathematical models show that these countries will reach a peak before the peak power consumption by the industrial countries and their relevance to many years. For example, if you took the arrival of the industrial countries to a peak power consumption 150 years, the emerging countries may reach that peak within 60 years.
3 - If we look at the curves that compare the energy consumption of China and India in industrialized countries, we find that the consumption of two individuals actually Indian and the Chinese equivalent to what was consumed by the average American almost 100 years ago. And who expect similar growth to the U.S. per capita consumption in China and India in the coming decades are ignoring the fact can not be condoned at all is that this kind of comparisons focused on the European and U.S. data in periods of political stability. In other words, so that comparison and the conclusion is true, there is presumably a key is that China and India Stneman political stability during the next 100 years, which is not a thought. I'd be more optimistic about the future of oil if to ensure that China will not suffer political unrest in the coming decades.
4 - Energy demand in China and emerging countries fall into two categories, self-section stems from the growth of the local economy, and the department resulted from the transfer of factories and companies from Europe, America and Japan to China to these countries. These industries will move back to the new countries when they arrived in emerging countries to a certain level of development. This means that the growth of energy demand in India and China will not continue at current rates.
5 - If we compare the long-term outlook for global oil demand made during the past 50 years real-time data, we find that actual demand was always much lower than expected. When the word''many''the really big difference by any measure, more than 20 million barrels a day!
In short, these developments, which limit the growth of global oil demand over the long term fact of life, although high oil prices accelerate these developments, so the future is not in fear of 'peak oil production,''but of''peak oil demand '.. Will absorb oil countries this history lesson?
